Last week’s letter left the Federal Reserve walking into a crosscurrent: a wall of data that argued for patience and a reopened energy shock that argued for vigilance. This week

The last letter promised a stretch of data dense enough to test every forecast on the board. This letter will cover the last two weeks. The data arrived, and most

Last week’s letter left an open question hanging in the air: Would the labor market’s slow warming ever reach the people standing inside it? This week supplied a partial answer,

A Shock Absorbed, a Cut Deferred The second quarter of 2026 opened in the fog of war and closed in a fragile calm. The US/Israel-Iran conflict that erupted at the