The last letter promised a stretch of data dense enough to test every forecast on the board. This letter will cover the last two weeks. The data arrived, and most

Last week’s letter left an open question hanging in the air: Would the labor market’s slow warming ever reach the people standing inside it? This week supplied a partial answer,

A Shock Absorbed, a Cut Deferred The second quarter of 2026 opened in the fog of war and closed in a fragile calm. The US/Israel-Iran conflict that erupted at the

This week the loudest signal from the Federal Reserve came in the form of silence. Chair Kevin Warsh has persuaded most of his colleagues to stop narrating the policy outlook