The week brought a tentative ceasefire between the US/Israel and Iran and data confirming that the economic damage was already in motion before any diplomat sat down. From record-low consumer

Three Acts, One Shock and an Economy That Ran Out of Margin The first quarter of 2026 opened as a Goldilocks story — above-trend growth, cooling inflation, a patient Fed

Four weeks into the US/Israel-Iran conflict, the US economy is caught in a peculiar temporal illusion: the hard data still looks resilient, the soft data has already cracked and the

Three weeks into the US/Israel-Iran war, the economic data is telling two very different stories — one of an economy that was performing admirably before February 28, and one now