March retail sales beat expectations, consumer sentiment found a floor (even if the floor is a 75-year low) and pending home sales surprised to the upside. Read

Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz this week (only to close it again the next day), crude oil futures dropped toward $80 a barrel and

The week brought a tentative ceasefire between the US/Israel and Iran and data confirming that the economic damage was already in motion before any diplomat

Three Acts, One Shock and an Economy That Ran Out of Margin The first quarter of 2026 opened as a Goldilocks story — above-trend growth,